Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 9.156892 10.518138 11.984473 13.678037 15.576578 17.635648 20.034134
2025-12-14 7.050589 8.868553 10.980688 13.602038 16.753078 20.403137 24.934338
2025-12-21 5.684632 7.599006 9.937514 12.979092 16.802424 21.418823 27.380621
2025-12-28 5.060408 7.131146 9.772169 13.346746 18.011769 23.841536 31.618401
2026-01-04 4.538308 6.700396 9.564191 13.576433 18.983797 25.941544 35.479956
2026-01-11 3.998104 6.171912 9.156609 13.476334 19.475306 27.405469 38.552517
2026-01-18 3.539766 5.699143 8.765665 13.339832 19.869994 28.717820 41.440364
2026-01-25 3.192548 5.346402 8.502460 13.343024 20.430166 30.249934 44.662125
2026-02-01 2.921973 5.077794 8.330707 13.450318 21.122309 31.972231 48.195617
2026-02-08 2.638781 4.757772 8.049258 13.362659 21.507657 33.257290 51.144140
2026-02-15 2.383506 4.455175 7.765277 13.241188 21.819754 34.430945 53.958779
2026-02-22 2.200915 4.254426 7.622534 13.321473 22.428755 36.049369 57.467583
2026-03-01 2.085976 4.163166 7.655569 13.691439 23.518090 38.451345 62.270785
2026-03-08 1.881634 3.892332 7.367670 13.516812 23.734860 39.537143 65.137598
2026-03-15 1.632877 3.512012 6.858501 12.930903 23.244089 39.492351 66.250696
2026-03-22 1.557644 3.451748 6.902609 13.285092 24.304376 41.907986 71.254988
2026-03-29 1.470804 3.359458 6.880366 13.518291 25.167892 44.037084 75.876876
2026-04-05 1.345930 3.177582 6.678596 13.416995 25.453002 45.238053 79.056613
2026-04-12 1.228873 2.998926 6.467474 13.281572 25.665674 46.319699 82.070976
2026-04-19 1.139284 2.868665 6.337732 13.284555 26.114947 47.801714 85.778896
2026-04-26 1.069008 2.772882 6.267183 13.391510 26.749453 49.611121 90.079267
2026-05-03 0.984198 2.635169 6.101437 13.304160 27.024645 50.815237 93.403639
2026-05-10 0.903609 2.498004 5.925275 13.183162 27.227637 51.896012 96.547137